TrendForce’s latest report projects global sales of NEVs, encompassing BEVs, PHEVs, and FCVs, to reach 13.03 million units in 2023, marking a growth rate of 29.8%. This growth, while robust, represents a notable slowdown from the 54.2% surge witnessed in 2022. Of these units, BEVs account for 9.11 million, exhibiting a growth rate of 24%, while PHEVs reach 3.91 million units, with a more substantial growth rate of 45%.
China maintains its position as the leading market for NEVs, capturing approximately 60% of the global market share. However, growth in the Chinese market is showing signs of deceleration due to the high base effect, compounded by limited sales growth in other regions, failing to compensate for the slowdown. Consequently, NEV sales growth is anticipated to ease, with an estimated 16.87 million units projected to be sold in 2024, accompanied by a growth rate of 29.5%.
In the BEV segment, Tesla retains its lead in 2023 with a market share of 19.9%. However, BYD emerges as a formidable competitor, narrowing the sales gap with Tesla to a mere 248,000 units. This remarkable feat is attributed to BYD’s consistent performance in China and its expanding international presence bolstered by the activation of overseas bases. TrendForce suggests that BYD possesses the potential to challenge Tesla’s dominance in the BEV market for the current year.
GAC Aion secures the third position for the first time, while SAIC-GM-Wuling and Volkswagen slip to fourth and fifth place respectively. Luxury marques BMW and Mercedes-Benz intensify their electrification efforts, securing sixth and eighth places respectively. Meanwhile, Hyundai Group, comprising Hyundai and KIA, maintains their positions thanks to sustained sales growth.
BYD and Li Auto emerge as the top two players in the PHEV market, with Li Auto posting an impressive 182% growth rate in 2023. Li Auto’s rapid market share expansion is fueled by its strategic focus on mid-size and large SUVs, catering to family-oriented consumers. Traditional stalwarts BMW and Mercedes-Benz occupy the third to fifth spots, albeit facing declines in Europe due to sluggish PHEV sales.
Jeep experiences a notable 33% surge, climbing to sixth place. Moreover, Chinese brands such as Changan, Denza, and Deepal debut in the top ten rankings, underscoring the competitive edge of the Chinese market. TrendForce anticipates that as Chinese brands accelerate PHEV exports, established automakers will encounter heightened pressure on growth margins.
Notably, amid China’s domestic growth slowdown, automakers are not only exporting vehicles but also actively establishing overseas bases. TrendForce highlights the significant advantages Chinese brands hold in terms of vehicle diversity, pricing, and smart features. Overcoming challenges associated with reliance on a single production site is crucial for sustained growth. However, potential increases in trade barriers may impede the global spread of Chinese NEVs.
In the U.S., a ban on Chinese-made battery components starting in 2024 threatens the eligibility of many EV models for subsidies. While automakers like GM offer equivalent federal tax credits of $7,500, disruptions in the Chinese supply chain hinder efforts to drive down EV prices, posing additional challenges for the industry. Source